The odds of a home price decline hitting your local housing market, as told by one interactive chart

LANCE LAMBERT

April 27, 2022 5:15 AM EDT

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has made it clear: The central bank is done sitting on the sidelines as inflation chips away at the value of the dollar. The plan? Put upward pressure on interest rates until price growth relents.

Historically speaking, that inflation fighting playbook is particularly hard-felt in the housing market, where spiking mortgage rates can quickly price out homebuyers. That’s already starting to happen. On Thursday, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 5.11%—up from 3.11% in December. A borrower who took out a $500,000 mortgage at a 3.11% rate would owe $2,138 per month. At a 5.11% rate, that monthly payment on a 30-year mortgage spikes to $2,718.

While the swift move up in mortgage rates is undoubtedly putting downward pressure on the housing market, it doesn’t mean home prices are about to crash. In fact, every major real estate firm with a publicly released forecast model, including Fannie Mae and Zillow, still predicts home prices will climb further this year.

That said, industry insiders tell Fortune there’s increasingly a chance that the economic shock caused by soaring mortgage rates could see home values fall in some overpriced housing markets.

To better understand which regional housing markets might see a price decline, Fortune reached out to CoreLogic. The California-based real estate research company provided us with its assessment of close to 400 metropolitan statistical areas.

CoreLogic, which ranks No. 952 on the Fortune 1000, put housing markets into one of five categories based on the likelihood that home prices in that particular market are to fall over the coming 12 months. Here are those groupings:

  • Elevated: Over 40% chance of a price dip
  • High: 30–40% chance
  • Medium: 20–30% chance
  • Low: 10–20% chance
  • Very Low: 0–10% chance

Among the 392 regional housing markets that CoreLogic measured, it puts 86% into the “very low” or “low” likelihood of a price decline. It put 10% of markets into the “medium” grouping and 1% in the “high” grouping. Meanwhile, CoreLogic places only 2% of markets into the “elevated” group. The markets in the elevated grouping—the highest odds of a price correction—include Hartford; Kalamazoo; Lewiston, Maine; Mount Vernon, Wash.; Muskegon, Mich.; Olympia, Wash.; Salem, Ore.; and Honolulu.

Even in the face of soaring mortgage rates, CoreLogic still thinks the chances of prices declining in 2022 are fairly low.

This excerpt from Fortune.com

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Homebuyers face ‘most competitive market in recorded history’

Rising real estate costs, demographics shifts, and low inventory have hamstrung homebuyers for years. But according to Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com, this spring buying season may bring buyer frustration to a boil.

“I think it’s fair to say this is the most competitive housing market we’ve seen in recorded history,” says Hale. “There’s record low inventory and strong interest from buyers in getting into the housing market. There are a lot of buyers, and not a lot of sellers.”

According to Hale and other economists and real estate industry observers, many factors have created this “imperfect storm” of high demand and low supply. Underbuilding had been a key factor, due to cost, labor shortages, and zoning and regulatory barriers to new construction.

“We’ve been paying the bill for underbuilding for some time, and every year, it gets worse,” she says. “We’re not only not keeping up, we’re falling further behind.”

This excerpt taken from Curbed.com to read more please click HERE.

Home Prices: Boom Continues, but Leveling Out Needed

Image result for housing market

The boom is continuing for home prices, with a gain in March of 6.5 percent, according to the S&P CoreLogic/Case-Shiller Indices.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index’s 10-City Composite, which is an average of 10 metros (Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington, D.C.), rose 6.5 percent year-over-year, an increase from 6.4 percent in February. The 20-City Composite—which is an average of the 10 metros in the 10-City Composite, plus Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Portland, Seattle and Tampa—rose 6.8 percent year-over-year, which is comparable to February. Month-over-month, both the 10-City Composite and the 20-City composite rose, 0.9 percent and 1 percent, respectively.

“The home price increases continue, with the National Index rising at 6.5 percent per year,” says David M. Blitzer, chairman and managing director of the S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Committee.

“Looking across various national statistics on sales of new or existing homes, permits for new construction, and financing terms, two figures that stand out are rapidly rising home prices and low inventories of existing homes for sale,” Blitzer says. “Months-supply, which combines inventory levels and sales, is currently at 3.8 months, lower than the levels of the 1990s before the housing boom and bust.

“Until inventories increase faster than sales, or the economy slows significantly, home prices are likely to continue rising,” says Blitzer. “Compared to the price gains of the last boom in the early 2000s, things are calmer today.”

“The solid gain in home prices of 6.5 percent in March added roughly $150 billion to housing wealth during the month,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), in a statement. “The continuing run-up in home prices above the pace of income growth is simply not sustainable. From the cyclical low point in home prices six years ago, a typical home price has increased by 48 percent, while the average wage rate has grown by only 14 percent. Rising interest rates also do not help with affordability; therefore, more supply is needed to level out home prices. Homebuilding will be the key as to how the housing market performs in the upcoming years.”

This excerpt from RIS media: To Rea More Click Here